Pyotr Topychkanov studies nuclear non-proliferation for Carnegie Moscow Center. “Russia does not want Iran with a nuclear weapon,” said Topychkanov.
He said a nuclear-armed Iran would start a regional arms race, starting with the Sunni Muslim Gulf monarchies that ship their oil to the outside world through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, a Shi'ite Muslim nation, has threatened to close the strait, if pushed too hard on the nuclear issue.
Closer to home, the Kremlin worries that if Iran gets a nuclear bomb, Russia’s historic southern rival, Turkey, will race to get its own nuclear weapon.
Evgeny Satanovsky runs the Near East Institute in Moscow. He speaks of Russia’s new worry about Turkey and its increasingly aggressive prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“We have in Turkey the new Ottoman Empire. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a man with a very dangerous ambition, and he looks at himself a new Ottoman Sultan,” he said.
Satanovsky says good relations with Turkey and Iran are essential for keeping the peace in Russia’s Muslim south. A century ago, the inhabitants of Russia’s Southern Caucasus were called “mountain Turks.” Today, they still resent rule by Moscow. In Dagestan, a low-level insurgency take lives almost daily.
Satanovsky worries that an angry Iran would strike back at Moscow by bankrolling Muslim extremist groups in Russia’s Caucasus.
“Don’t touch them too aggressively, because they can destabilize the Northern Caucasus, the Russian Dagestan or some other territories for a few months," he said.
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Topychanov at Carnegie says Russia is less a player and more a bystander in events to its south. “After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia does not have the resources to play an active role even in this region,” he said.
4 comments:
This gives a good perspective on Russia's position in respect to Iran.
My overall assessment is that nuclear proliferation is inevitable. Building a U235 weapon is simple in a way and can be hidden underground.
Look at North Korea/They did it almost overnight. Arm sales speculators, eager for the money will not shy away from selling arm building equipment.
The only question I have is whether the wars preventing proliferation wpuld cost more lives than the possession of nuclear weapons which may even stop the wars/
Unfortunately it it is probably also inevitable that that the inevitable nuclear weapons will be used at some point, Drasko. At this point Pakistan and Israel seem to me to be the greatest threats in this regard, but trying to predict things like this is probaly futile - an inevitable nuclear disaster could take place almost anywhere...
The rhetoric is really heating up, especially over the assassination of one of Iran's top nuclear scientists. The sad part is that all this could have been avoided if the US normalized relations with Iran when it had the opportunity back in the late 90s.
Bill Clinton tried to pursue this road, but was blocked by a Republican-led Congress which refused to recognize Iran in any shape, way or form. Eventually, the moderates were ousted in Iran, and we are left with a fundamentalist government led by Ahmadinejad.
The nuclear option is one of the few ways beleaguered countries like Iran have of insuring against US invasion, especially after Iraq and Afghanistan. Call it a trump card. It has worked very well for North Korea.
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