Something Strange Happened on the way to the Revolution: Putin's Popularity is Increasing

No Putin isn’t nearly back to the stratospheric ratings he enjoyed during the boom years, but neither is his popularity caught in a downward spiral:

“A respected polling agency connected to the Russian government announced Friday that the popularity of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin had reversed its slow decline, rising above 50 percent for the first time in weeks. The news comes just over a month before presidential elections that Mr. Putin is widely expected to win. The polling agency, VTsIOM, put Mr. Putin’s rating at 52 percent as of Jan. 14."

Even a Levada poll conducted from December 16-20 (that is during the height of the post-election turbulence when public anger over vote fraud was freshest and most raw) showed that Putin would get 36% of the votes. 36% doesn’t sound particularly impressive until you consider that the runner-up was the buffoonish Vladimir Zhirinovsky who was supported by a mere 7% of likely voters. It is true that 22% of the poll’s respondents were undecided, so it’s entirely possible that Putin’s margin over his next-closest rival wouldn’t be nearly as impressive as the poll suggests at first glance, but I think the poll is helpful because it shows that a very large portion of Russian society (at least 40% since 3% of the poll’s respondents said they would vote for Medvedev) is basically supportive of the current regime.
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This is very strange . An objective analysis of the political situation suggests that main danger facing the anti-Putin movement isn’t that it will storm to victory too quickly but that it has already lost momentum as evidenced by the fact that Putin’s popularity has stabilized and is starting to slowly creep upward. In such a situation the very worst thing that the opposition can do is act as if it has already won and that Putin’s departure is only a matter of time.